Forecast for Non-residential Building Construction

Statistics Canada reports that spending on non-residential construction increased by 8.5% in 2023, with all provinces except Alberta (down 5.3%) and Yukon (down by 6.5%) seeing growth in spending. Nunavut (+51.0%), Saskatchewan (+34.5%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+27.2%) led the pack in terms of growth. Of the four largest provincial economies, BC (+16.6%), Quebec (+12.9%), Ontario (+8.7%) all showed growth; as noted earlier, Alberta saw a decrease.

Based on StatsCan's Capital and Repair Expenditures Survey, 2024 shows softer growth of 3.6% nationally. Eight provinces or territories are expected to show growth. Saskatchewan (+21.1%) is the only province exxpected to have double-digit growth. Of the four largest provincial economies, Ontario (+8.5%), Quebec (+8.3%) and Alberta (+2.4%) are forecast to experience growth; BC's spend on non-residential construction is anticipated to decline by 8.9%.

The largest industry sectoral increase will be manufacturing (+31.0%), driven by chemical manufacturing (+73.2%) and transportation equipment manufacturing (+100.4%). In terms of total capital expenditures, the private sector is expected to grow by 4.8%, while the public sector should show growth of 3.9%, driven by increases in public administration and utilities which, between them, account for 59.1% of the projected $131.8 billion dollars. You can read more here.